‘Dune: ‘Part Two’ And The Oscars - Awards Outlook
Photo from Warner Bros.
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Dune: Part Two And The Oscars
In the first half of 2024, there have not been a lot of promising movies in general and, even more specifically, there haven't been many awards prospects. One key standout has been Dune: Part Two which has captured the hearts of audiences and critics alike, but will it be a hit with next year’s Oscars?
Dune: Part One did incredibly well at the Oscars, being nominated for ten and winning six. Even if those six were simply technical awards it won more awards than any other film that year. Dune: Part Two is just as impressive at all of those same technicals, but it will be interesting to see if lightning could strike twice and this film could once again dominate.
Sequels do not fare well at the Oscars, especially with a potential third movie being developed. It should also be noted that while there is a room for a third Dune film in the story and the cast and crew have all been quoted with being on board, nothing has officially been announced yet and so it’s unknown if it will even happen.
Sequels still have a hard time through the Oscars… Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was upset by The Boy and the Heron this year for animated film and Peter Jackson’s second film of The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers still got a Best Picture nomination (though Jackson wasn’t nominated for Best Director). Avatar: The Way of Water received the Best Picture nomination as well but did considerably worse at the Oscars than its predecessor in 2009. The only example of a sequel outperforming its predecessor at the Oscars is The Godfather: Part II which famously grabbed the Best Picture and Best Director win after Francis Ford Coppola missed out on winning for the first.
Dune: Part Two has some obvious expected nominations and probable wins in Best Visual Effects and Best Sound which almost feel sewn up for this film with no true competitors on the horizon… unless another action movie can grab those or a miraculous film like The Zone of Interest. Part One may have already won in these two categories last time, but this is a film that could easily repeat.
With a field of ten and some of those nominees running parallel to Box Office successes that are also of high quality, it is very likely that Dune: Part Two will be nominated for Best Picture. It will, however, be interesting to see if Denis Villenueve could finally be nominated for Best Director for this franchise after getting a very notable snub for Dune: Part One. Getting nominated for the sequel after not getting nominated for the original seems like a very tall order and an unlikely outcome, but his makeup nomination is still possible.
‘Dune’ was a book that was long considered unadaptable and is considered to be a tremendous success, which led to the first film receiving a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. The sequel was just as strong as an adaptation and so it definitely should be nominated, but it's still a question of there being a certain momentum for that film to get this type of nomination.
The other technical awards that Dune: Part One won in its prospective year were for Editing, Production Design, Cinematography, and Original Score and it was nominated for Makeup and Hairstyling and Costume Design. Dune: Part Two deserves to be nominated for all of these awards, but the impediment to it being nominated for all those categories when many have elements similar to the first film feels unlikely. However, there are some new settings that are different enough and Hans Zimmer’s score has enough fresh moments where these elements could all be nominated again.
The absolute longshot is a potential Best Supporting Actor nomination for Javier Bardem. This seems the least likely but honoring a modern screen legend for an unsuspecting role is not entirely impossible. Bardem missed out for a similarly fun supporting performance for his role in Skyfall.
This film was released in March which is nine months before the end of the year and early release dates in the past have had a negative impact on Oscars campaigns, but lately the exact opposite has been true where a longer campaign has helped many different types of films. Everything about this film and its relationship with the Oscars is much more of a question mark than the first.