Box Office Predictions: Warner Bros. Remains On Top As ‘Barbie’ Dips To Second Behind ‘Blue Beetle’
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: August 18th, 2023 to August 20th, 2023
After leading the box office over the past four weeks with Barbie, Warner Bros. will look to remain at the top of the box office this weekend with the release of Blue Beetle. The comic book adaptation and latest installment of the DC Extended Universe (DCEU) was directed by Ángel Manuel Soto and stars Xolo Maridueña, Adriana Barraza, Damián Alcázar, Raoul Max Trujillo, Bruna Marquezine, Susan Sarandon and George Lopez. Blue Beetle will be playing in 3,871 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows starting early at 2PM. Blue Beetle is noteworthy for having a Latino superhero (and largely Latino primary cast), which will likely lead to the film appealing strongly with Hispanic American moviegoers. On the average, critical reviews for Blue Beetle have been good, which should also help the film this weekend. At the same time, Blue Beetle being a lesser known superhero to most, will limit the film's potential this weekend. Back in March, fellow DCEU film Shazam! Fury of the Gods debuted with $30.11 million. Blue Beetle could be headed for a very similar opening weekend performance this weekend, but beyond this weekend is likely to hold up much better than Shazam! Fury of the Gods did. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Blue Beetle will debut with a promising $30.5 million this weekend.
As mentioned, fellow Warner Bros. release Barbie has led the box office for the past four weekends, with the blockbuster film having declined a very solid 36.2 percent last weekend to gross $33.83 million. With Blue Beetle and Universal's Strays both entering the marketplace this weekend, Barbie is unlikely to hold up as well this weekend as it did last weekend. With that said, Barbie should still be able to have another solid hold this weekend, especially since the film is holding onto the vast majority of its locations from last weekend. A 40.9 percent decline would transfer into a $20.0 million second place take for Barbie this weekend. That would represent the twelfth largest unadjusted fifth weekend gross of all-time and would already place the current total domestic gross for Barbie within shouting distance of the $574.25 million current total gross of this year's The Super Mario Bros. Movie (which is currently the highest grossing release of 2023 domestically).
Also opening in wide release this weekend is Universal's Strays. The R-rated dog comedy was directed by Josh Greenbaum, features the vocal talent of Will Ferrell, Jamie Foxx, Isla Fisher and Randall Park, and also stars Will Forte. Strays will be playing in 3,223 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. Strays has been positioned to open at the same time of year as Universal's 2019 comedy Good Boys, which opened with $21.40 million, before going on to gross $83.14 million during its theatrical run. However, comedies (not named Barbie) haven't had much luck at the box office recently and it doesn't look like Strays will be able to buck that trend. Interest in Strays looks to be somewhat limited, especially among more dedicated online movie fans (though it's possible the film will have more appeal among more casual moviegoers). The film's mixed critical reviews won't help matters either this weekend for Strays. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Strays will debut in third place this weekend with $11.4 million.
Last weekend saw fellow Universal release Oppenheimer decline a solid 35.4 percent to return to second place with $18.81 million. Oppenheimer has displayed impressive holding power thus far, but this weekend will see Oppenheimer lose the vast majority of its IMAX screens to Blue Beetle, which will no doubt have a negative impact on Oppenheimer this weekend, especially given how strong Oppenheimer has performed on IMAX screens. In turn, Oppenheimer will likely see demand now increase for non-IMAX screenings this weekend, which would help prevent the film from having an especially sharp decline this weekend, but wouldn't be able to stop Oppenheimer from losing significant momentum this weekend. Oppenheimer could decline 45.3 percent this weekend to place in fourth with $10.3 million, before likely re-stabilizing next weekend.
Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Warner Bros.'s Meg 2: The Trench are coming off of respective second weekend grosses of $15.28 million and $12.85 million. Both films will likely take a hit from this weekend's new wide releases. With that in mind, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem could decline 44.4 percent this weekend to take fifth with $8.5 million, while Meg 2: The Trench could decrease 48.6 percent to follow in sixth place with $6.6 million.
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