Box Office Predictions: It’s Taylor Swift’s World And We’re Just Living In It
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: October 13th, 2023 to October 15th, 2023
The theatrical box office will receive a much needed boost this weekend from AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film. The highly anticipated concert film showcasing Taylor Swift's The Eras Tour has made headlines since its release was announced at the end of August. The immense demand among fans of Swift's large fanbase to see the theatrical version of The Ears Tour led to record-breaking initial pre-sales for the concert film. Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will be playing in an estimated 3,850 locations this weekend and will be playing on IMAX screens. Initially, the concert film wasn't going to start playing until early Friday evening, but there has been a very last minute change in plans with there now being Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM and initial Friday shows now starting at 2PM. Although Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film has a 168-minute run-time, the film will still have a very large amount of showtimes this weekend, thanks in part to the rest of the theatrical marketplace being relatively empty at the moment. On top of the high level of demand for the concert film to begin with, initial demand over the weekend for Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will be increased further by the concert film not being scheduled to screen on weekdays. Ticket prices for Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film are also significantly higher than those of a typical film in the current marketplace, which will obviously provide a major boost to the box office performance of the concert film. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will debut with an impressive $107.0 million this weekend. That would set a new opening weekend record for the month of October; a record which is currently held by 2019's Joker with $96.20 million.
Last weekend saw Universal and Blumhouse's The Exorcist: Believer debut in first place with $26.50 million. However, that was just under the low-end of consensus expectations for the horror sequel heading into the weekend. As The Exorcist: Believer moves beyond its opening week, very poor critical reviews and lackluster word of mouth (the film received a C rating on CinemaScore) are sure to have a negative effect on the film (and likely already took a bit of a toll on the film's opening week performance). The Exorcist: Believer is losing most, but not all of its IMAX showtimes this weekend to Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film. The Exorcist: Believer should receive a small boost this weekend from Friday being Friday the 13th and could also receive another small boost from being the primary choice in the marketplace for the portion of moviegoers not interested in seeing Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film this weekend. Look for The Exorcist: Believer to decline a sharp 64.5 percent to place in second this weekend with $9.4 million.
Paramount's PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie is coming off a second weekend performance which saw the computer animated film decline a sizable, but not too terribly surprising 50.2 percent to place in second with $11.33 million. In the bigger picture, with $42.27 million through Wednesday, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie has already surpassed the $40.13 million final domestic gross of 2021's PAW Patrol: The Movie. With the initial front-loading out of the way, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie should start to stabilize this weekend, though the arrival of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film could prevent the stabilization for PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie from being even mightier this weekend. A very solid 34.7 percent decline would transfer into a third place take of $7.4 million for PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie this weekend, which would move the film just past the $50 million domestic mark.
In a bit of a surprise, last weekend saw Disney and 20th Century's The Creator have a slightly better second weekend hold than Lionsgate's well-received Saw X, though Saw X still remained ahead of The Creator in last weekend's rankings. Saw X declined 57.2 percent to take third with $7.84 million, while The Creator decreased a similar 55.6 percent to follow in fourth with $6.25 million. The two films will likely experience similar weekend declines to one another again this weekend, with Saw X having potential for the slightly better hold thanks to holding onto a higher percentage of its locations from last weekend and thanks to Friday being Friday the 13th this weekend (as mentioned earlier). Saw X could decline 40.0 percent to claim fourth this weekend with $4.7 million and The Creator could decrease 40.8 percent to follow in fifth place with $3.7 million.
Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.
