Box Office Predictions: ‘Dune: Part Two’ Looks To Be The Early 2024 Cinema Messiah
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: March 1st, 2024 - March 3rd, 2024
The box office will look to pick up in a big way this weekend with the release of Warner Bros. and Legendary's highly anticipated Dune: Part Two. The follow-up to 2021's Dune was once again directed by Denis Villeneuve and features an ensemble cast that includes Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Dave Bautista, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, Stellan Skarsgård, Charlotte Rampling and Javier Bardem. Dune: Part Two will be playing in 4,071 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM (the film also had early access screenings this past Sunday). The film is expected to perform especially well on IMAX and other PLF screens, which will no doubt help out this weekend's debut. Critical reviews for Dune: Part Two have been exceptional and on the average have been a level above the already strong critical reviews for Dune. Back in October of 2021, Dune opened with $41.01 million and did so while opening day and date, theatrically and via streaming on HBO Max. With Dune: Part Two opening exclusively in theatres, Dune having gone over especially well with audiences and reviews being even stronger for Dune: Part Two than they were for Dune, Dune: Part Two appears set to open significantly higher than Dune did. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Dune: Part Two will open with $75.0 million this weekend. That would be just above the $73.82 million launch of John Wick: Chapter 4 last March.
After leading the domestic box office each of the past two weekends, Paramount's Bob Marley: One Love is set to take second place this weekend. Last weekend Bob Marley: One Love declined a sharper than expected 53.0 percent to gross $13.46 million. In the bigger picture, Bob Marley: One Love continues to outpace expectations and has grossed a healthy $74.53 million through Wednesday. Even with Dune: Part Two entering the marketplace this weekend, Bob Marley: One Love will likely experience at least some stabilization from last weekend's decline. Bob Marley: One Love could decline a respectable 45.8 percent to take in $7.3 million this weekend.
Also entering the marketplace this weekend (technically on Thursday) is Fathom Events' The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7 & 8. The event release consists of episodes of The Chosen faith-based television series and represents the third and final of three theatrical releases for Season 4 of the series. Two weeks ago, The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 – 6 has respective three-day and four-day starts of $3.61 million and $4.39 million. That represented a bit of a drop-off from the respective three-day and four-day starts of $5.95 million and $7.38 million for The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1 – 3 earlier in February. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7 & 8 may experience another drop-off from Episodes 4 – 6, but probably to a much smaller extent, as audiences who have seen both of the previous installments will likely want to see the third installment as well. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day weekend and four-day starts of $3.5 million and $4.2 million for The Chosen: Season 4: Episodes 7 & 8.
ionsgate's Ordinary Angels is coming off of a third place start of $6.16 million last weekend and could find itself in a close race for third place with fellow faith-based release The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7 & 8 this weekend. Last year at this time, Lionsgate's Jesus Revolution declined 46.4 percent in its second weekend (to gross $8.51 million). Ordinary Angels could experience a similar second weekend percentage decline this weekend, especially given that the film looks to be going over very well with audiences (Ordinary Angels received a perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore). A solid second weekend decline of 44.8 percent would transfer into a $3.4 million take for Ordinary Angels this weekend.
Sony's Madame Web was down a sharp 61.4 percent last weekend to gross $5.92 million in its second weekend of release. The poorly received comic book based film could hold up slightly better this weekend by declining a still sharp 57.7 percent to gross $2.5 million for the frame.
Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.
